The Concern Over Herd Immunity

The dialogue around the government's scientific guidance intensified after Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Advisor, mentioned on a radio program that "some degree of herd immunity" could help mitigate the peak of COVID-19 cases. Although the government later asserted that this was an informal remark and not part of their strategy, a significant number of scientists—over 500—signed a letter on March 14 advocating for stronger social distancing measures. They emphasized that herd immunity "does not seem a viable option."

The Delay of Social Distancing Measures

Parliament continued to postpone social distancing measures, citing concerns over "behavioral fatigue," suggesting that people might grow frustrated with the rules and stop adhering to them. This idea was met with skepticism from 681 behavioral scientists, psychologists, and researchers, who signed a letter questioning the validity of behavioral fatigue as a reason to delay essential measures. They urged the government to either provide solid evidence supporting this claim or reconsider their approach.

At this juncture, the government had released little information regarding the research backing their decisions. They claimed adherence to the advice of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). However, the anonymity of SAGE members and the confidential nature of their meeting minutes led to a lack of transparency, raising questions about the guidance that was—or was not—being followed. Reports surfaced about a controversial government advisor, lacking formal scientific training, attending SAGE meetings, further fueling skepticism. In response, a group of scientists formed an independent advisory body known as Independent SAGE, chaired by Sir David King, a former government chief scientific advisor. Unlike SAGE, the discussions and membership of Independent SAGE are publicly accessible, with their proceedings available on platforms like YouTube.

The Necessity of Transparency

Independent SAGE has criticized the government's assertion of "following the science," arguing that scientific advice often escapes scrutiny. In light of these criticisms, the government has taken steps to enhance transparency by publicly disclosing SAGE participants and meeting minutes. However, some believe that the damage has already been done. Ian Boyd, a member of SAGE, defended the group's scientists in The Guardian, asserting their desire for independence from political influence. While this independence is essential, the lack of transparency hinders their ability to demonstrate that their advice is both accurate and unbiased.

The Role of Politicians in Decision-Making

Ultimately, the responsibility for policy decisions lies with politicians. When the government states they are "following the science," they tend to deflect accountability, placing the burden on scientists. However, scientific findings often do not provide straightforward answers; instead, they reveal complexities beneath layers of uncertainty and imprecise measurements. When research findings are made public, the inherent weaknesses and nuances of "the science" become evident, challenging the notion that one can simply "follow the science." Increased transparency can better inform the public about the intricacies of scientific research and the delicate balance between politics and science, potentially aiding in more informed political decisions.

The Shift to the Joint Biosecurity Centre

Recently, the UK government has reduced its reliance on SAGE for COVID-19 guidance, opting instead for the newly established Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC). This shift has raised concerns, as the JBC has also faced criticism for its lack of transparency and independence.

As we move forward, it is crucial to question the scientific basis behind political decisions. When politicians assert they are following scientific guidance, we must ask, "What science?"

About the Author:

Katharine Palmer, MPH: KP has a background in Psychology and Public Health and currently serves as a Research Assistant.

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